Summary: Covenant Logistics CEO David Parker told analysts on October 30 that he expects truckload contract rates to rise by double digits again in 2027. FreightWaves data shows shippers who reset contracts recently are already paying about 12.8% more than before, and spot rates are climbing as trucks leave the market. For owner-operators and small fleets, this is the time to price your lanes with care and plan for higher costs.
What happened
On Covenant Logistics’ third-quarter earnings call on Friday, October 30, 2026, CEO David Parker said carriers will keep raising rates to cover rising driver pay, equipment, insurance and other operating costs. “We’re going to continue to raise rates,” he said. “We have to because of the cost.” When an analyst asked if he expected another year of double-digit contract increases in 2027, he answered, “That’s my expectations,” FreightWaves reported.
The market data points the same way. According to SONAR’s Contract Rate Change Direction index, cited by FreightWaves, shippers who reset truckload contracts in recent months are paying about 12.8% more than the rates they replaced, up from 4.1% at the same point in 2025. That index only counts a change when the old rate had held steady for more than 90 days, so it tracks real contract resets.
Spot rates are moving up too. The Journal of Commerce’s November 2 issue reported that the DAT national dry van spot rate rose 5 cents to $2.26 per mile for the week ending October 10, a 59-cent gain from a year earlier. DAT said the rise reflects thin capacity rather than a surge in demand, with the spot market supply pullback as deep as 20% to 26% year over year. DAT principal analyst Dean Croke pointed to higher diesel prices and stricter enforcement as the reasons trucks are leaving.
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller gave a similar outlook in a November 1 interview with Pallet Enterprise. He said trucking capacity will get tighter, that freight rates are “probably going to go up double digits next year,” and that drivers, not trucks, are the real limit on capacity as English-proficiency testing and other enforcement push drivers out.
One note of caution: Parker’s comment is one carrier executive’s expectation, not a guarantee for the whole market. Costs are rising fast as well, so higher rates do not automatically mean higher profit.
What it means for owner-operators and small fleets
When large carriers say publicly that they plan to raise contract rates, it tells you where pricing is heading. Shippers are already accepting higher resets, and brokers buying capacity in a tighter spot market have to pay more to cover loads. A compliant owner-operator with clean authority, good insurance and on-time service is exactly the capacity that is getting harder to find.
But the same pressures that push rates up also push your costs up. Diesel, insurance, repairs and truck payments have all climbed in 2026. Shipper freight spending is up sharply, as we covered in our post on shipper freight spend rising 32.1%, yet many small carriers are still struggling, with trucking bankruptcies hitting 221 this year. The carriers who come out ahead in 2027 will be the ones who know their true cost per mile and refuse loads that do not cover it.
Action steps to get ready for 2027 rates
- Update your cost per mile. Add up fuel, insurance, truck and trailer payments, maintenance, permits and your own pay, then divide by miles. Redo it every month while diesel stays high.
- Set a minimum rate for every lane. Use your cost per mile plus a profit margin as a floor. If a load, including deadhead, does not clear it, pass on it.
- Review any dedicated or contract freight before renewal. If you haul for a direct shipper or a regular broker lane at a rate set months ago, the market has moved. Prepare your numbers and ask for an increase.
- Track spot rates weekly. Check national and lane-level trends so you know when the market is tightening in your region and can hold firm on price.
- Protect your compliance record. Clean ELD logs, current insurance filings and a clear authority status make you the kind of capacity brokers and shippers want to keep paying for.
- Build relationships with reliable brokers. In a tight market, brokers call the carriers they trust first. Fast updates and on-time delivery earn you better freight.
How Runnex helps
Rate negotiation is at the center of our truck dispatch services. Our dispatchers watch the market every day, negotiate with brokers on your behalf and plan loads around your lanes and minimum rate, so you are not leaving money on the table as rates climb. We also handle invoice management and paperwork, which keeps cash flowing while you drive. Whether you run Dry Van, Reefer, Flatbed, Step Deck, HotShot or Power Only, you can see how our dispatching and freight coordination services support owner-operators and small fleets.
FAQ
Will truckload rates go up in 2027?
Some industry leaders expect so. Covenant Logistics CEO David Parker said on October 30, 2026 that he expects double-digit contract rate increases in 2027, and FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller said rates will probably rise by double digits next year. These are forecasts, not guarantees.
How much have contract rates risen so far?
FreightWaves reported that shippers who recently reset truckload contracts are paying about 12.8% more than the rates they replaced, based on SONAR’s Contract Rate Change Direction index, compared with 4.1% a year earlier.
Why are spot rates rising if freight demand is not surging?
DAT said the increase comes from thin capacity. Fewer trucks are available in the spot market, as high diesel prices and stricter enforcement push some carriers and drivers out.
Do higher rates mean more profit for owner-operators?
Not automatically. Fuel, insurance and equipment costs are rising too. Knowing your cost per mile and setting a minimum rate is the best way to make sure higher rates turn into real profit.
Get better rates with Runnex
Ready to make the most of a tightening market? Contact Runnex Logistics or call (574) 240 6239 to talk with a dispatcher about higher-paying loads and steady lanes.
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